While the political dynamics could very-well change over the next month, at this point, it seems that the movement toward the GOP among Independents will stay.
Elections are largely decided by the political center of the country. Independent voters swung the election for Donald Trump in 2016, and this group’s subsequent rejection of Trumpism in the 2018 midterms and 2020 presidential election played a crucial role in helping Democrats regain control of Congress and the White House.
Independent voters will have a particularly outsized importance in this year’s midterm elections. Both the Democratic and Republican bases are highly enthusiastic about voting, and congressional control hinges on a handful of very close races.
While Independent voters tilted toward Democrats over the summer — when the party was enjoying a surge in political momentum due to the reversal of Roe v. Wade and declining gas prices – there has been a rightward shift among this group in recent weeks, fueled by the renewed national focus on the deteriorating economy.
Wall Street Journal polling conducted in mid-August showed Democrats with a lead in the generic ballot among voters overall, buoyed by a 3-point advantage with Independent voters.